Bracketology 101: Do’s and Don’ts

I was going to wait until after the NCAA Tournament bracket was announced on Sunday to post this blog, but after much deliberation I realized that it would be much more beneficial to all you loyal readers to post it today.

My reasoning is simple, if I were to post it post-Selection Sunday the majority of you would have already broken the majority of the following rules I am going to discuss.

So as a public service to you, I am bringing you a fools proof guide to what you should do, and what you shouldn’t do when filling out your bracket for the upcoming men’s tournament.

(Note: I do not consider myself an “expert” on filling out a bracket. In fact, I suck. I have watch more college basketball then anyone I know and I still finish near dead last in every pool I join. With that in mind, who better to take advice on what not to do than from someone who repeatedly does those things. There’s a reason there are more “don’ts” on this list than “dos.”)

OK, on to the list. Let’s start off with a no-brainer.

1. Don’t pick a 16-seed to beat a No. 1 seed. It never happens, it never will happen and you should be kicked out of your pool if you do this. While we’re on the subject, a 15-seed hardly ever beats a No. 2 (unless of course you are North Carolina and playing against Weber State, in that case…watch out!). So stay away from 15 over 2 and 16 over 1 upsets, you’ll be glad you did. But…

2. Do pick a 12-seed to beat a 5-seed. For some strange reason every year a 12-seed knocks off a No. 5 seed and every one wonders why they didn’t see it coming. Well now you know, and like my buddies G.I. Joe used to say, “knowing is half the battle.”

3. Don’t pick all four No. 1 seeds to make it to the Final Four. One will definitely make it, two might make it, three is a stretch, and if you pick all four, then you’re not putting any effort into filling out your bracket and you deserve to lose.

4. Don’t listen to the experts. Sure, they may give you some sound advice on some of the lesser known schools in the tournament, but let’s be real, they are only “experts” because they once played or coached in college. Does that make someone an expert? I mean, “Big Country” Bryant Reeves once played in college, would you listen to him when filling out your bracket? I didn’t think so. Let’s move on.

(One more thing: Don’t copy what the experts bracket either. If you have that little amount of pride then you shouldn’t be involved in a tournament pool.)

5. Don’t pick your favorite team to win it all. This rule hits close to home with me because for the longest time I picked my favorite team to win the National Championship. No one wants to root for their team to lose, but sometimes you just have to bite the bullet and realize that no matter how much you love them this might not be the year for your beloved Dayton Flyers. And while we’re on the subject…

6. Don’t pick a team to advance based on jersey color, mascot or quality of cheerleaders. While they all may be fun to watch, there is no justification for picking a team based on those three things. And don’t pick a team because you once lived in that state, knew someone that went there, went there yourself, or at one time in your life wanted to go there. That rationale doesn’t make sense and should be avoided at all cost.

Those first six rules are rules for the casual fan or the wife/girlfriend/person in the pool just playing for a chance to win some cash and can be ignored if you’re an actual basketball fan. But don’t ignore these rules.

7. Don’t bet on an outstanding freshman. Last year it was Kevin Durant, Greg Oden and Mike Conley Jr. carrying their teams in the tournament. While, Oden and Conley made it to the title game, Durant’s Texas team got beat in round two, sending him to the NBA and the group that picked Texas to go far (i.e. me)to the bar to drown our sorrows. This year, the list of outstanding freshman is too long to list, but I’ll list a few anyway. Kansas State has Michael Beasley, Indiana has Eric Gordon, USC has O.J. Mayo and Memphis has Derrick Rose. Neither of those teams (save Memphis) has a chance to win it all. They may make it to the Sweet 16 or they may get knocked out in the second round. Remember, these are 18-year-old kids playing in their first tournament and cannot be counted on. Just a warning.

8. Don’t pay attention to overall records. Just because a team goes 28-4 in the Southwest Athletic Conference doesn’t mean they are better than a 20-10 team from the SEC, ACC or Big 12. Sometimes the smaller schools are better then then the traditional powerhouses they are playing against, and sometimes they’re not, but there’s a reason why kids chose to go to ACC, SEC and Pac-10 schools as opposed to schools in the WAC. But…

9. Do pay attention to strength of schedule and how the teams fared against the Top 25 teams. Lesser known schools get better by playing against better teams, it’s that simple. They may lose in the regular season, but come tourney time, that experience of playing a Duke or UCLA or Carolina pays off. Remember this, RPI means nothing, Strength of schedule means everything.

10. Don’t fill out more than one bracket. If you do, make them the same. No one likes people that say, “Hey I got Texas to win it all in my work pool,” and then Texas loses, and that same person says, “It’s okay, I had them losing in another bracket I’m in.” Joining multiple pools is one thing, picking different brackets is another. It’s really quite annoying and should be a federally mandated law that people aren’t allowed to do it.

I saved the best for last…

10. After completion of your bracket, DON’T, I repeat, DON’T change it. This was the main reason why I decided to post this blog today. Had I waited until Tuesday, the majority of you (myself included) would have dissected their brackets more time than Bill Nye the Science Guy dissects frogs. They say when taking a multiple choice test always go with your first answer. The same goes with filling out a tournament bracket. Your first choice is always the best, and if you change it, nine times out of 10, it’s going to come back to bite you in the you know where. Don’t do it. Unless of course, Tyler Hansbrough tears his ACL while practicing his flopping and crying before the tournament starts. In that case, you might want to change your pick.

Well, that’s all I got. If I’ve forgot anything please let me, and the rest of the world know. Good luck to ya.

One Response to “Bracketology 101: Do’s and Don’ts”

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